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Predicting the duration of Guam amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Epidemiology Branch, National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke, Bethesda, Maryland, and the NINDS Research Center, Tamuning, Guam.

During the years of study of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis on Guam we have observed a wide range in clinical signs and rate of progression of the disease. Some patients died within 6 months of onset, while others have lived for 20 years. It was our assumption that some aspects of the early neurologic involvement would be related to length of survival, and hence be of prognostic value. We found that an early age at onset and male sex were associated with longer survival. The detailed analysis of degree of involvement of four major neurologic components of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (progressive muscular atrophy, lateral sclerosis, bulbar paralysis, and pseudobulbar palsy) showed no meaningful pattern of association with duration of illness that could be useful in predicting the course.

Received for publication August 13, 1974.

Reprint requests should be addressed to Epidemiology Branch, C&FR, National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke, Bethesda, MD 20014. Dr. Reed's present address is South Pacific Commission, Noumea, New Caledonia. Dr. Brady's present address is Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission, Hijiyama Park 5–2, Hiroshima 730, Japan. Dr. Holden's present address is 620 N. Almont Drive, Los Angeles, CA 90069.

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