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Neurologists in the United States—past, present, and future

Neurology Service, Veterans Administration Medical Center and the Department of Neurology, Georgetown University School of Medicine (Dr. Kurtzke), Washington, DC; the Department of Neurology, University of Nebraska College of Medicine and Creighton University School of Medicine (Dr. Bennett), Omaha, NE; the Department of Pediatric Neurology, University of California Medical Center (Dr. Berg), San Francisco, CA; the Department of Community Health, University of Kansas School of Medicine (Dr. Beringer), Kansas City, KS; the National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Diseases and Stroke (Dr. Goldstein), Bethesda, MD; and (Dr. Vates) Wilmington, DE.

Neurologists in the United States were enumerated for each year from 1935 to 1984 on two bases: board certification (including Child Neurology and Psychiatry and Neurology) and completion of PG4 neurology residency training. The annual incidence of new neurologists was calculated at less than 200 until 1970; then it rose steadily to 380 in 1980, and plateaued thereafter at 385. The estimated number of neurologists present at one time (prevalence) was 1,500 in 1950, 2,400 in 1970, 4,600 in 1980, 8,100 in 1990, and 11,000 in 2000. These numbers for total neurologists will plateau at 12,200 by about 2010, at which time the number of certified neurologists will also plateau at 9,900. Both numbers are notably less than our prior estimate of needs: 16,500 neurologists by 1990, 19,100 in 2010.

Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr. Kurtzke, Neurology Service (127), VA Medical Center, 50 Irving Street NW, Washington, DC 20422.

Supported by the American Academy of Neurology, the Veterans Administration (Neuroepidemiology Research Program), and the University of Kansas (Department of Community Health).

Accepted for publication March 24, 1986.

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