Neurology 2002;59:205-209
© 2002 American Academy of Neurology
Long-term prognosis after recovery from primary intracerebral hemorrhage
S. E. Vermeer, MD,
A. Algra, MD,
C. L. Franke, MD,
P. J. Koudstaal, MD and
G. J.E. Rinkel, MD
From the Departments of Neurology (Drs. Vermeer and Koudstaal) and Epidemiology & Biostatistics (Dr. Vermeer), Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam; Department of Neurology (Drs. Algra and Rinkel) and Julius Center for General Practice and Patient Oriented Research (Dr. Algra), University Medical Center Utrecht; and Department of Neurology (Dr. Franke), Atrium Medical Center Heerlen, the Netherlands.
Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr. S.E. Vermeer, Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Erasmus Medical Center, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, the Netherlands; e-mail: Vermeer{at}epib.fgg.eur.nl
Background: Little is known about the long-term outcome for patients who recover from a primary intracerebral hemorrhage. The authors examined the rate of recurrence, vascular events, and death in survivors of a primary intracerebral hemorrhage and the factors related to the long-term prognosis.
Methods: All 243 patients admitted to one of three hospitals with a primary intracerebral hemorrhage who regained independence were interviewed about vascular events after the index hemorrhage. The authors used the Kaplan–Meier method to estimate the event-free survival and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to identify predictors of recurrence, any vascular event, or death.
Results: During a mean follow-up of 5.5 years, the annual rates of recurrent primary intracerebral hemorrhage, vascular events, and vascular death were 2.1% (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.3%), 5.9% (95% CI, 4.5 to 7.7%), and 3.2% (95% CI, 2.2 to 4.5%). Age of 65 years or older was the only predictor of a recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 2.8; 95% CI, 1.3 to 6.1) and vascular death (HR, 3.7; 95% CI, 2.0 to 7.0). In addition to age, male sex predicted the occurrence of vascular events (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 3.0). Use of anticoagulation after the index bleeding tripled the risk of hemorrhagic events (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.3 to 7.2).
Conclusion: Patients who recovered from a primary intracerebral hemorrhage had a 2.1% to 5.9% annual rate of recurrence, vascular death, or vascular events. Age of 65 years or older more than doubled the risk of recurrence, vascular event, or death. The risk of vascular events in men was increased twofold.
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