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Published online before print January 9, 2008, doi:10.1212/01.wnl.0000288179.86056.e1)
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NEUROLOGY 2008;70:1084-1091
© 2008 American Academy of Neurology

Responsiveness and predictive value of EDSS and MSFC in primary progressive MS

J. J. Kragt, MD, A. J. Thompson, MD, PhD, X. Montalban, MD, PhD, M. Tintoré, MD, J. Río, MD, C. H. Polman, MD, PhD and B.M.J. Uitdehaag, MD, PhD

From the Departments of Neurology (J.J.K., C.H.P., B.M.J.U.) and Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (B.M.J.U.), VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Neurological Outcome Measures Unit (A.J.T.), Institute of Neurology, University College, London, UK; and Unitat de Neuroimmunologia Clínica (X.M., M.T., J.R.), Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain.

Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr Kragt, VU University Medical Center, Dept of Neurology, De Boelelaan 1117, PO Box 7057, 1007 MB Amsterdam, the Netherlands JJ.Kragt{at}vumc.nl

Introduction: We studied the responsiveness and predictive value of two widely used clinical outcome measures that document multiple sclerosis (MS) disease progression—the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and the Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite (MSFC)—in patients with primary progressive (PP) MS. Disease course in PPMS shows less fluctuation than in relapsing remitting (RR) MS.

Methods: In a group of 161 patients with PPMS, EDSS and MSFC were performed at three timepoints. To assess responsiveness, mean change scores and variances were plotted against baseline scores and effect sizes were calculated. Predictive value was determined by calculating sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios (LRs) of 1-year changes to predict changes over 2 years. Furthermore, multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess the predictive value of short-term worsening on EDSS and MSFC.

Results: Responsiveness of both EDSS and MSFC was shown to be limited and mean changes were highly dependent on the baseline scores. Effect sizes for EDSS and MSFC were small and inconclusive (0.239 and 0.161). The predictive value of a short-term worsening (baseline to year 1) to predict worsening in the long term (baseline to year 2) was expressed for EDSS by a sensitivity of 0.55 and a LR+ of 8.64. For MSFC, sensitivity was 0.68 and LR+ was 3.14. However, short-term worsening was a poor predictor of subsequent worsening (year 1 to year 2) for EDSS (LR+ 1.06) and this relationship was actually inverse for MSFC (LR+ 0.61).

Conclusion: In this study over a period of 2 years in primary progressive multiple sclerosis, the Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite (MSFC) was less responsive than the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). The predictive value of neither EDSS nor MSFC was very powerful.

GLOSSARY: EDSS = Expanded Disability Status Scale; LRs = likelihood ratios; MS = multiple sclerosis; MSFC = Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite; NPV = negative predictive value; PASAT = Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test; PP = primary progressive; PPV = positive predictive value; RR = relapsing remitting; T25FW = Timed 25-foot Walk.

Editorial, page 1061

e-Pub ahead of print on January 9, 2008, at www.neurology.org.

The MS Center VUMC is partially funded by a program grant of the Dutch MS Research Foundation.

Disclosure: The authors report no conflicts of interest.

Received July 21, 2006. Accepted in final form August 14, 2007.


Related articles in Neurology:

Responsiveness and predictive values in PPMS: An uncertain message
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Neurology 2008 70: 1061-1062. [Full Text]  



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G. R. Cutter and F. D. Lublin
Responsiveness and predictive values in PPMS: An uncertain message
Neurology, March 25, 2008; 70(13_Part_2): 1061 - 1062.
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